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The US benchmark is back to Tuesday's high, with futures on the S&P500 now trading around the 4'508 level. The KEY question is whether bulls will manage to maintain the rally, or will the index see the same selling pressure as Wednesday... This morning, the negative sentiment in Chinese stocks (with the CSI300 down 1.8%) is adding pressure on stocks in Europe and the US. The following chart shows the 4'512 level to be an important resistance test. 

Apple is breaking higher, outperforming the S&P500 by 1.2% as it announced having bought London-based credit scoring startup Credit Kudos, a fintech that lets businesses assess loan applicants by analyzing banking data, and offers a service for potential borrowers to assess their creditworthiness. Recently, Apple has been escalating its push in online payments, adding features like Apple Card, Apple device installment plans, and in February, the much-anticipated Tap to Pay feature on the iPhone. 

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pointing higher, breaking major resistance levels. Futures on the US benchmark is rallying 25 points higher as the market opened, with the S&P500 index now at 4'488. The 100-day exponential moving average which seemed to be a key resistance level is now behind us, providing some optimism to traders. While Fed tightening risk remains valid, stock markets are celebrating improvement in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Treasuries convulsed after Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that policymakers “may well conclude that we need to move more quickly". While many market participants are pointing to the rising risk of recession, Powell himself dismissed such fears saying that he doesn’t see an elevated chance in the next year and admonished the crowd of noisemakers to look at parts of the curve that really matter; the 18-month forward spread of 3-month rate. In the past, this part of the curve has actually been a good predictor of recession. And the GOOD NEWS is that, right now, it is far away from the level suggesting a high risk of a recession. In the markets, S&P500 futures are pointing higher, following the upbeat momentum of stock markets in Europe and Asia, as investors are seeing some hope for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Volatility, seen as a measure of risk in the market, remains elevated but has come down to level before the Russian invasion. It is an encouraging sign after markets logged a strong week following the Federal Reserve delivering a clear path to raising rates. Later today, Powell will deliver his latest view on economics at the annual NABE policy conference. While markets are moving on volatile energy prices, and news flow from Ukraine, it is becoming clearer that markets are beginning to price a more stable environment: lower long-term inflation, at the expense of lower growth, a deceleration of the US consumer, and a continued tightening of financial conditions, but not to the point of derailing the US economy. These views are reinforced by what is happening in the bond market: the Treasury yield curve is flattening, and portions of it are inverted, which for some is interpreted as a looming economic slowdown. Bottom line? the environment should remain volatile but should be favorable, for stocks and other risk assets as the backdrop (potentially) shifts to a slower growth regime, tighter financial conditions, but visibility gradually improves.