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- Tuesday: US CPI, Coca-Cola earnings.
- Wednesday: US retail sales, UK CPI, Cisco & Kering earnings.- Thursday: US PPI, building permits, (weekly) jobless claims, earnings: Applied Materials, Pernod Ricard, Air Liquide, Schneider E, & Airbus.- Friday: UK retail sales, earnings: Hermes, Deere, & Safran.

It is looking clearer now that the number of bulls is rising and bears are fewer. As we presented at the start of the year, markets were very bearish, but now a mean reversal has taken place, leaving less room for error. Nonetheless, the environment has clearly improved, despite the tight liquidity conditions with higher interest rates.
Source: chart by Willie Delwiche

Treasury yields are lower for the second session after a three-day run-up sparked by last Friday's stronger-than-expected January jobs report and a drop in the unemployment rate to its lowest since 1969 at 3.4%. Today's data is critical for what lies ahead. A stronger initial jobless claims number is likely to lift expectations for the fed funds (above 5%), and as such put pressure on risk assets.

JPMorgan's Kolanovic is the latest to fall in the bear camp, calling the stock rally a 'bear-market trap', arguing that the US economy' disinflationary process could just be transitory. The reality is the situation is more nuanced as markets are digesting favorable data that is showing the economy is slowing but it is still resilient. In fact, inflation is for now slowing, and earnings are stronger than feared, but the jobs market in the US remains too tight.  

The S&P500 looks like it is at an inflection point, technically speaking. The level of around $4,182 has been an area of support and resistance in the last year or so. Traders are looking for reasons to have a strong move in either direction. In fact, Goldman Sachs US equity strategist David Kostin came with a call just recently that stocks should be going 'nowhere' for the rest of the year because a soft landing is already priced in.