LiveWire

According to the latest Alignable Rent Poll, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for small businesses everywhere to pay their rent in full and on time, given the latest COVID resurgences. These findings are based on the most recent Alignable Rent Poll conducted among 9,204 small business owners from 11/21-11/23/2020. Here are the highlights: 1) Several B2C industries are devastated – 61% of restaurants can’t pay their rent this month. That’s up 19% from 42% in November; 2) 35% of U.S. small businesses couldn’t pay their rent this month, up 3% from 32% in November and; 3) Beauty salons (46%) and travel/hospitality businesses (43%) round out the Top 3 most-affected businesses, but many others are in trouble. Overall, 35% of small business owners reported that they couldn't make rent this month (up 3% from 32% in November) - source: www.zerohedge.com

ESG has staying power. Biden administration bolsters odds for climate friendly firms to succeed with new legislation in the pipeline for the next presidential administration. BlackRock has been the most prolific adopter this year excluding fossil-fuel, tobacco and weapons industries from their new ETFs. Part of this trend is of course related to returns. A BlackRock survey of 425 managers suggests plans to double down on their sustainable AUM to over one third of their portfolios by 2025.

Emerging markets will suffer more in the long run than most advanced economies. While GDP decline is most apparent in developed countries, other factors like labour market rigidities and limits to fiscal support hinder emerging nations most. Reliance on tourism and high unemployment in such countries hurts recovery. Similarly, countries like France that rely more heavily on tourism than say Australia could bounce back less vigorously. Countries who rely too much on tourism might diversify away towards other productive, or more capital intensive sectors (Vietnam as an example). Some will bounce back higher than others...

If we look at the chart history of the energy sector, it may indicate that it is at the beginning of a potential recovery, making it a hot sector to trade. Will the future follow the path of the past charts?

Big time inflation coming once the bottom of current commodity cycle is in...