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1198 days ago

How much does the vaccine cost?

This summer the U.S. government agreed to pay Pfizer and BioNTech $1.95 billion for the first 100 million doses. That's the equivalent of about $19.50 per dose. The contract also included an option to buy more doses, up to 500 million more. Pfizer has had to cut down on half of its promise due to challenges in manufacturing, securing and distributing the vaccine. The government turned to Moderna for the remaining supply and exercised an option to purchase 200 million through June 2021. This is not great news for Pfizer whom we know invested heavily in rendering a vaccine and noted in their latest 10-Q the risk of not recovering this expense (R&D at PFE). Overall, the taxpayer is paying for the vaccine, and we could easily expect U.S. taxes to climb next cycle. Source: WSJ

#Macro

1198 days ago

A new record for the ECB balance sheet which just reached EUR 7 trillion for the first time ever

Source: Holger Z, Bloomberg  

#Macro
ECB balance sheet

1199 days ago

China tops crude steel production

Stimulus in China and a low price for metallurgic coal (used to make steel), gave mills the flexibility to pay more for iron ore. China produces more than half the world's steel and has rolled it out at soaring rates. Crude steel output was 87.7 million tons in November up 8% YoY. The price of the steelmaking commodity could retreat in the year ahead with Chinese demand and supplies cooling off. The US and European Union show inverted bell curves for steel production in 2020, after a fall from grace seen by the US earlier this year. Source: WSJ

#Commodities #Macro
CRUDE STEEL CHINA USA EU

1199 days ago

Consumer confidence vs. expectations vs. present conditions

It seems that the US population was pleasantly surprised for the past 5 years, with economics conditions that exceeded both their confidence and expectations. Economic conditions did go down again, but we're still on a higher level than in the period after the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

#Macro
The conference board consumer confidence index

1199 days ago

When in doubt, just predict rising yields

If we look at this charts, it simply says how optimistic (and wrong) we can be. Each prediction was denied by a sharp downturn. The lesson remains: forecasting is no easy task. 

#Macro
Forecasting rising yields
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