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1186 days ago

Negative-yielding debt vs. G-bond yields across developed markets

The US have $17 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds (which grew from a mere $7 trillion in 2019). at the same time, government bond yields of developed market have not ceased to go down since 1990. The question is: are we facing a bubble or not? 

#Bonds #Macro
negative bond yields

1186 days ago

Personal savings have never been as high

On the graph below, you can see the percentage of the disposable income being saved by Americans. If it reached a peak in 1975 with 15%, this year, we're reaching around 26%. The tourism sector will work wonders in 2021. If it opens of course. 

#Macro
savings as percentage of disposable income

1186 days ago

Asian block GDPs for 2021

Notice China still positive in 2020 going for a stronger increase in 2021. In aggregate between 2020 and 2021 we will see close to 10% GDP growth, akin to 2012 Chinese levels. India, who was one of the biggest losers of the pack alongside Philippines and Thailand, is set for great gains, breaking even YoY. Source: Asian Development Bank

#Macro

1190 days ago

The SKEW index rallied before the last 2 big market sell-offs (and it's rallying now...)

The SKEW index is a measure of potential risk in financial markets. Much like the VIX index, the SKEW index can be a proxy for investor sentiment and volatility. The Skew Index measures perceived tail-risk in the S&P 500. Tail-risk is a change in the price of the S&P 500 or a stock that would place it on either of the tail ends, or the far edges of the normal distribution curve. These price changes typically have a low probability. - Investopedia

#Macro
The SKEW index rallied before the last 2 big market sell-offs (and it's rallying now...)

1190 days ago

The 2020 money supply explosion

QE galore. Money supply +$14t. Reach for yield drove EVERYTHING. Stocks OUTPERFORMED economies. Even INSOLVENT firms couldn't default.

#Bonds #Macro
The 2020 money supply explosion
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