1141 days ago
At current levels, commodity prices will have priced-in an ISM Prices Paid Index >90 by the end of Q1. >90 has only happened 2X: -June & July 2008 Back then, commodities fell 53% over the next 6 months. ISM New Orders minus Inventories peaked 6M ago. Prices usually follow.
1141 days ago
Could this be the sign of a new inflationist trend? In any case, it seems that investors are turning to inflation-friendly asset, with energy ETFs leading the pack.
1142 days ago
Japanese GDP contracted by 28.8 % in Q2 2020 and bounced back 21.4% quarter-quarter in Q3 and 12.7% in Q4. But it is still lagging behind 2019 levels, as the Japanese economy was not stranger to economic recessions even before the pandemic. The administration of prime Minister Shinzo Abe has not yet succeeded to pull the county out of stagnation yet. They significantly eased the monetary policy and increased government spending and trying to establish structural reforms to make the country more competitive.
1142 days ago
Despite a pandemic and a staggering unemployment rate, the market continues to set meteoric highs. While many analysts are waiting for a sign of reversion, survey data shows that the warning signs at the end of the current bull market do not seem to scare investors, as the bull run keep going through 2021. 53% said the market was in a late-stage bull market, 27% were convinced that we are in an early-stage bull market, while only 13% said that we were standing in a bubble about to burst. Overall, 91% of investors expect a stronger economy in 2021 than 2020.
1142 days ago
According to Morgan Stanley, the US GDP should return to its pre-covid path by Q3 2021, and maybe even surpass the previous long-term forecast.
