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1091 days ago

Is China where proper inflation will first shows up?

China Producer price inflation (PPI) is back to 4%, its highest since 2018. Is it The West's demand for Chinese factory goods that means China will be the first place to see the post-pandemic 'temporary hyper' inflation the Fed has been so keen to talk down?

#Macro
Is China where proper inflation will first shows up?

1092 days ago

From this perspective, Biden infrastructure is not crazy spending but catchup

In the US, government investment actually collapsed in the aftermath of the GFC. This time, however, governments are in the driver’s seat of the recovery, with unprecedented amounts of fiscal stimulus.

#Macro
From this perspective, Biden infrastructure is not bold spending but just catchup

1092 days ago

The US Treasury issued $372 billion notes and bonds in a single month, the largest amount ever. As the Fed "only" bought 23% of this amount, Treasury yields are going up.

The 23% bought by the Fed is the lowest % in 13 months.
Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat capital 

#Macro
US Treasury Bonds & Notes Issuance

1093 days ago

IMF predicts a 6% global growth this year

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded its gobal growth expectations to 6%, up 5.5% from January. If this comes to be true, it would be the highest rate in 4 decades. Growth for 2022 is expected to reach 4.4%. 

#Macro
IMF predicts a 6% global growth this year

1093 days ago

An uneven global economic recovery?

Mind the gap! At the beginning of the year, the 2021 GDP forecasts for Germany and the USA were both at 4%. Fast forward to the end of Q1and there is now a growth gap of no less than 2.4% as the US is reopening (thanks to fast vaccine rollout) while Germany is still stuck in lockdown mode. 

#Macro
2021 GDP growth forecasts for the US and Germany (based on Bloomberg consensus)
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