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1053 days ago

Mismatch between supply of jobs and demand for work are becoming apparent

The number of long-term unemployed – those out of work for six months or longer, according to US criteria – has exceeded 4 million people since January. This compares with an average of 1.3 million in 2019. Are people not going back to work because unemployment benefits are too generous or because the setting makes it difficult for working families to find childcare?

#Macro

1053 days ago

European cyclicals on an upramp--could benefit from further inflationary pressure

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index traded modestly lower, with Ryanair Holdings Plc among the gainers after the airline pointed to a strong recovery in the second half.

#Stocks #Macro

1054 days ago

According to CBO, US debt to GDP could near 200% by 2050

Given the projected level of US debt to GDP, the Fed will not be able to afford to raise interest rates substantially in the foreseeable future (source: Bloomberg)

#Macro
Projected US Debt to GDP

1056 days ago

Core CPI could be skewed by second hand trucks and cars prices

Core CPI surged 0.9% in April which was the biggest monthly gain since 1981. Roughly 0.7pp of the gain in core CPI owed to just eight categories with used car/truck prices having an outsized contribution of 38bp.

#Macro

1057 days ago

Market decline prompts furious hedging. Put/call back to November high

A Cboe put-to-call ratio that tracks the volume of options tied to everything from single stocks to indexes, including the S&P 500 and the VIX fear gauge, reached 0.99 this week in its highest level since November. Short bets against the largest S&P 500 ETF, ticker SPY, have also spiked, as have those on the tech-focused Invesco QQQ fund.

#Macro
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