1235 days ago
Capex estimates for the S&P 500 only improved 2.5% from their lows and are still down 16% YoY. If the pandemic keeps deteriorating, how much more monetary and fiscal stimulus to cover this hole? - source: Crescat Capital
1235 days ago
Financial markets cheered better than expected trial results of the jab made by Pfizer and BioNTech on a Covid-19 vaccine. But let's keep in mind that the ultra-cold temperatures needed to store it means that distributing the vaccine will be an enormous challenge. Indeed, Minus 70C is exceptional for a vaccine and there is limited infrastructure in place - source: FT
1236 days ago
Mike Lebowitz: "Bloomberg’s Smart Money Flow Index is a measure of how ‘smart money’ is positioning itself in the S&P 500. The logic behind the index is that smart investors tend to trade near the end of the day, while more emotional-based traders dominate activity in the first 30 minutes of the trading day. The index is calculated as follows: yesterday index level – the opening gain or loss + change in the last hour. As shown below, the Smart Index and the S&P were well correlated until late August. Since then, as highlighted by the red arrow, they have diverged sharply. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500 and the Smart Index have a strong correlation of .65. As such, we expect they will converge in time. The light blue circle shows they also diverged, albeit to a much lesser extent, in January and February as the smart money correctly sensed problems.” - source: RIA
1236 days ago
A survey of 2,200 adults was conducted on Nov. 4 by Morning Consult on behalf of the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA). Only 32% of respondents have taken an overnight vacation or leisure trip since March. Only 21% of respondents said they would travel for Thanksgiving, and 24% will travel for Christmas - source: www.zerohedge.com
1238 days ago
2020 in numbers: Covid 19 deaths over 1.2mn, US unemployment claims up around 50 mn, global GDP down $9tn, central banks asset purchases = $1,2bn per hour, total $21tn, US corporates issued more than $3tn....2021 could just be the opposite
