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Graphic shows a selection of assets that typify risk-off traders has outperformed a similar set of assets typifying risk-on trades. That's been due to the latest fall in bond yields (which means bond prices rise) and with such bonds prices rising, leading conditions elsewhere indicate some traders may be nervous about the prospect of an stock market correction.

At JPMorgan, the sentiment turned bearish on the 10-year treasuries ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting stating markets are now pricing in a too shallow rate hike outlook. Bond investors abandon short bets in recent weeks on an expectation fed officials should reaffirm that an ultra-loose policy remains appropriate. TD Securities see the potential for the central bank’s median “dot” for 2023 -- a gauge of its expectations for rates that year -- to move higher, according to a note from strategists. They say this could lead to a bounce back to the 1.70% level. Given the shift in the mix of inflation and transitory towards sustainable the risk of a hawkish titl within the FOMC has increased.

The recent decline in US bond yields across the board has been telling a story of falling inflation expectations. Markets are not always right but the recent moves suggest we should seriously consider the idea that the current rise in consumer price inflation will be transitory. Maybe now the fed will start being concerned that rates are too low given broader economic conditions, rather than too high. 

The world's biggest energy company started marketing its dollar denominated bonds. They will issue bonds due in three, five and 10 years, but we do not have much more details. The goal of these bonds is to finance the $75 billion in dividends that the company was planning to pay. With oil at the highest since October 2018, their profits soared but their free cash flow was still short of $18.75 billion to pay the promised dividends.

Tavi Costa points out that the Fed just did their largest purchase of US Treasuries in almost 6 months. $32B in a single week.