1047 days ago
Grey rhinos refer to black swan type of events but ones that we know about but still don't do anything about. As we all know, rhinos can be very very dangerous....Among the grey rhino events markets are grappling with this week include according to Goldman Sachs:
1. Inflation
2. S&P 500 valuations (The S&P 500 continues to trade near a P/E of 22X)
3. Cryptos – can losses here be amplified into other asset classes?
1052 days ago
BoA's fund manager survey shows cyclical consensus is late cyclical with lots of exposure to commodities, banks, materials, industrials, the UK, and emerging markets. Bonds, the USD, Cash, Technology and Utilities are no gos. In May, the survey also showed investors leaning on Staples, in what was the largest positional increase between Energy, REITs and Banks.
1052 days ago
Bitcoin dropped below $45,000 for the first time since February amid Elon Musk's comments, back at the levels before Musk's initial bitcoin comments. Meanwhile Gold futures just touched $1865, its highest since January 31st, breaking above its 200DMA for first time since Feb 2nd. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg.
1054 days ago
Total returns for “inflation” and “deflation” indices since 1974 shows that an "inflation hedge basket" (commodities, gold, global value, EU equities) massively underperformed a "deflation basket" (IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, S&P 500) - source: BofA
1054 days ago
According to BofA, the trigger for H2 stagflation narrative is "peak US consumer" & higher bond yields. "Goldilocks" to "Stagflation" (red quadrant) means outperformance of defensive growth (e.g. staples, big pharma, monopolistic telcos, utilities, some say FAANG) + quality (e.g Swiss Franc over Aussie dollar, Investment Grade over Junk).
